Left Missiles

FROM IFOP, 22 SEPTEMBER 2022
REPORT ON PUBLIC OPINION POLL

Concerning the wish that France should negotiate a treaty to ban and completely eliminate nuclear and radioactive weapons

Text preceding Question 1:

Today there are nearly 13000 atom bombs threatening life on earth. According to the UN, any State that uses them "must be considered as violating the UN Charter, acting in contempt of the laws of humanity and committing a crime against Humanity and civilization" (Resolution of 24 November 1961). According to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which France ratified in 1992, the States possessing nuclear weapons are obliged to negotiate the complete elimination of these arms and all States must renounce them definitively.

The International Court of Justice unanimously confirmed on 8 July 1996 that "there exists an obligation to pursue in good faith and bring to completion negotiations leading to nuclear disarmament in all its aspects, under strict and effective international control."

Despite that, the nuclear-armed States have never met to negotiate for this purpose, and they refuse to disarm unilaterally. What they must do therefore is negotiate an abolition treaty committing to eliminate their existing arms in a complete, methodical and controlled way and to ban them comprehensively and definitively.

Question 1:
"Do you want France to take part in the abolition of nuclear weapons and to engage with all the States concerned in negotiations aimed at drawing up, ratifying and implementing a treaty to ban and completely eliminate nuclear and radioactive weapons, under mutual and international control that is strict and effective?"

POLL RESULT 20-21 September 2022
[principal result]

French citizens as a whole: 71% YES 29% NO = 100%

Text preceding Question 2:

According to France’s Constitution, if a referendum of parliament and citizenry is to be organised, a Bill must be submitted by at least one-fifth of the Parliament (i.e 185 MPs or senators out of 925) and then must gather within nine months the support of 10% of registered voters, signing by electronic means or on paper at Town Halls.

Question 2:
« A parliamentary Bill to organise a referendum on the question you have just responded to is today being submitted to all parliamentarians.

If 20% of parliamentarians sign it, do you think you will give your support to this Bill so that the referendum can take place? »

POLL RESULT 20-21 September 2022
[principal result]

French citizens as a whole: 70% YES 30% NO = 100% Right Missiles

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FROM ACDN - 26 September 2022

How the French people see the abolition of nuclear weapons

The views of French citizens on the abolition of nuclear weapons have been the subject of three polls by IFOP in partnership with ACDN (Action des Citoyens pour le Désarmement Nucléaire ): in October 2015, May 2018 and September 2022.

The questions

Each time two questions were put to those polled, introduced by a succinct explanation (copied in full in the IFOP reports below).

The first question was, in 2015 :
« Do you want France to negotiate and ratify with all the States concerned a treaty to ban and completely eliminate nuclear weapons, under mutual and international control that is strict and effective?"

In 2018 and 2022, it was formulated thus:

"Do you want France to take part in the abolition of nuclear weapons and to engage with all the States concerned in negotiations aimed at drawing up, ratifying and implementing a treaty to ban and completely eliminate nuclear and radioactive weapons, under mutual and international control that is strict and effective?"

The second question was identical in 2015, 2018 and 2022 :

« A parliamentary Bill to organise a referendum on the question you have just responded to is today being submitted to all parliamentarians.
If 20% of parliamentarians sign it, do you think you will give your support to this Bill so that the referendum can take place? »

The Responses

To the first question :
In 2015 : YES 74 % NO 26 %
in 2018 : YES 85 % NO 15 %
in 2022 : YES 71 % NO 29%

To the second question :
In 2015 : YES 74 % including YES certainly 27 % YES probably 47 %
NO 26 % including NO probably not 20% NO certainly not 6%
In 2018 : YES 82 % including YES certainly 31 % YES probably 51 %
NO 18 % including NO probably not 15 % NO certainly not 3%
In 2022 : YES 70% including YES certainly 22 % YES probably 48 %
NO 30 % including NO probably not 21 % NO certainly not 9%

In July 2015, over 70% the French people wanted France to take part in the abolition of nuclear weapons and to support a referendum on this question.

In May 2018, even more wanted it: over 80% on both questions.

In 2022, their support for nuclear disarmament has fallen slightly below the 2015 level, with nearly double the number opposing - from 15% to 29%. The poll was taken on 20-21 September, at the very moment when Vladimir Putin was emphasizing his nuclear threat against the West.

Despite that, there are still 71% of French citizens who want France to engage in negotiations on the abolition of nuclear and radioactive weapons and 70% who call for a referendum on the subject.

Constancy and evolution in terms of sex and age

From 2015 to 2022, one observes that support for nuclear disarmament is noticeably higher among women than men: 3 points different in 2015 (75% to 72%); 8 points in 2018 (89% to 81%); 6 points in 2022 (74% to 68%).

Similarly, in 2022 as in 2015 support is notably higher among the old than the young people: in 2012 it was 64% for those under 35 (58% for the 18-24 age-group) and 77% for those 35 and over (up to 81% for those of 65 and over): in 2022 it is 62% among those under 35 and 74% for those 35 and over (including 79% for those 65 and over).

In 2018, on the other hand, a very consensual period in this respect, the divergence was negligible. Compare 84% among people under 35 (83% in the 18-24 age-range) with 86% among those 35 and over. Rarely have French citizens been so close to each other as on this subject and on that date.

So what would be the best way to overcome those cleavages and unite the French people? The same as would permit all peoples to unite: to create complete nuclear disarmament, universal and controlled, in order to push away the existential fear and threat which are currently being used as methods of government and a basis for international relations - so that we can live together in peace and cooperate in solving the major problems assailing humankind.

The Atom Bomb is supreme violence, ultimate violence. Nothing positive or lasting can be built on it and with it.

Center Missiles

Variations in terms of political leanings

In 2018, support of nuclear disarmament existed almost irrespective of partisan difference. Thus 89% of the voters who supported Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the 1st round of 2017 Presidential Election wanted nuclear abolition, as did 89% of those who voted for Emmanuel Macron, and 81% of voters for Marine Le Pen.

In 2022, 81% of those who voted for Mélenchon in the 2022 Election wanted abolition, as did 76% of those who voted Macron, and 68% of those who voted Marine Le Pen 69 %. If we add that support was at 66% among those who voted Eric Zemmour and 60 % of those who voted Valérie Pécresse 60 %, then we see the French society’s lean to the right has a clear influence on the views of those who were polled, as does the geoplotical context.

It remains true that a strong majority of French people, whatever their political opinions, still favours the abolition of nuclear and radioactive weapons, wishes for France to commit effectively in this direction, and asks to be consulted on the question inscribed in the referendum Bill submitted by ACDN to all senators and MPs.

Democracy surely demands this.

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Le sondage des 20 et 21 septembre 2022

Le sondage des 2-3 mai 2018

Le sondage d’octobre 2015

La Proposition de Loi référendaire, septembre 2022

Formulaire de soutien à la Proposition de Loi référendaire